Chargement
Is the market paying a premium for its earnings? Reading via Shiller CAPE, trailing P/E, equity risk premium and real rates.
Indicators near their historical averages.
Click an indicator to understand what it measures.
CAPE (Shiller PE10) is the P/E ratio smoothed over 10 years of inflation-adjusted EPS — the best long-term measure available. ERP (equity risk premium) measures the premium required to hold equities rather than real Treasuries. No prediction — only a reading of today's prices against their historical distributions.
Methodological caveat:
No valuation indicator gives the timing of a correction. CAPE stayed above 25 for years on several occasions without the market correcting. These readings serve to frame risk, not to predict when. If everything is red, it means "stocks are expensive, expected future returns are historically lower" — not "sell everything".
The real yield after inflation. Determines valuation of all long-duration assets.
The risk-free reference rate for calculating risk premiums.