Chargement
A sourced reading of the macro regime. No date predictions — only what the curves, credit spreads and labor market are saying, with their historical antecedents.
Mixed signals. A few yellow lights but no bearish cluster.
No predictions. Each component maps a public data point (FRED, BoC) to a score [-2 .. +2] using documented thresholds. The composite is their weighted sum, normalized to [-1 .. +1].
A government bond's yield rises when its price falls. It is a country's cost of borrowing and a risk barometer: a spiking 10-year tightens financial conditions everywhere.
Provided for educational purposes — a bond yield is not investment advice.
Classic end-of-cycle indicator. Green = positive slope, red = inversion.
Often considered a more reliable signal than the 2s10s (Estrella & Mishkin).
Click a tile to understand what it measures.
VIX = SP500 implied volatility (FRED VIXCLS). HY OAS = option-adjusted spread on US speculative bonds (BAMLH0A0HYM2). Sahm Rule = gap (3-month MA of US unemployment − 12-month min); triggers at 0.50 — historically, recession in progress.