Geopolitics & oil

Reading geopolitical stress through academic indicators and the oil market. No event forecasts — only the quantifiable lights.

Current geopolitical regime

Tense

Several alerts: high GPR, oil vol, dollar or bonds stress.

WTI

84.65 $

30d vol : 54 %

Geopolitical stress indicators

Click an indicator to understand what it measures.

Prix du baril WTI

Au-dessus de la moyenne récente.

sensible : > 100 $ = pression inflation, < 50 $ = signal demande· FRED DCOILWTICO

84.65 $

USD Broad — variation 6 mois

Dollar stable.

> +5 % en 6 mois = squeeze dollar (stress global)· FRED DTWEXBGS

0.21 %

GPR: quantitative index based on textual analysis of international press (Caldara & Iacoviello, FRB). Published monthly. Oil volatility is computed by Polaris over a 30-day rolling window from daily WTI.

Geopolitics & oil

WTI — barrel price over 5 years

Geopolitical Risk Index — 20 years